CBO Warns Present Obama Economic Course Will Bring Back Recession

Remember how the Democrats keep looking for ways to raise taxes on the most successful Americans?  And how the president has threatened top veto any tax legislation that does not raise taxes on the Job creators?

 Today the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office released its semi-annual report on the economy and as the saying goes, "it aint pretty." According to the CBO the U.S. economy will slide into recession in 2013 if the combination of Taxmageddon and the automatic spending cuts — known as a sequestration are allowed to happen. 

The Congressional Budget Office Warns That Going Over The Fiscal Cliff “Will Lead To Economic Conditions In 2013 That Will Probably Be Considered A Recession …” “With those and other policy changes contained in current law, the deficit will shrink to an estimated $641 billion in fiscal year 2013 (or 4.0 percent of GDP), almost $500 billion less than the shortfall in 2012 (see Summary Table 1). Such fiscal tightening will lead to economic conditions in 2013 that will probably be considered a recession, with real GDP declining by 0.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013 and the unemployment rate rising to about 9 percent in the second half of calendar year 2013.

The 2013 part of Taxmageddon

That's only part of the story, the CBO report reflects an economy on the edge of the abyss, suffering from 3+ years of Obama's "leadership".

• Unemployment Going Up  “The contraction of the economy will cause employment to fall and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, CBO projects 

• The Federal Budget Deficit For Fiscal Year 2012 … Will Total $1.1 Trillion … Marking The Fourth Year In A Row With A Deficit Of More Than $1 Trillion.” 

• “The Amount Of Federal Debt Held By The Public Has Skyrocketed In The Past Few Years, Rising From 40 Percent Of GDP At The End Of 2008 To An Estimated 73 Percent By The End Of This Year.”

• According To The CBO, Federal Debt Held By The Public Will Reach The Highest Levels Since The 1950s. “Federal debt held by the public will reach 73 percent of GDP by the end of this fiscal year-the highest level since 1950 and about twice the 36 percent of GDP that it measured at the end of 2007, before the financial crisis and recent recession.”

• Ten years of Slow GDP Growth.  Growth from 2012 To 2022 Will Be Below The Average Rate Since 1950.“Potential GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent between 2018 and 2022 and by an average of 2.2 percent for the entire 2012-2022 period (see Table 2-3). Those rates are substantially below the average rate since 1950 of 3.3 percent, largely because growth in the potential labor force (the labor force adjusted for variations caused by the business cycle) is expected to slow from its average annual rate since 1950 of 1.5 percent to 0.5 percent over the projection period, mostly because of the steady rise in baby boomers’ retirements. CBO also expects the growth of potential capital services (the flow of services available for production from the stock of capital goods) and the growth of potential total factor productivity to be slightly slower over the coming decade than they have been, on average, since 1950.”

• The Share Of Long-Term Unemployed In The Past Two And A Half Years Under Obama’s Watch Has Been 40 Percent, Compared To 24 Percent In The 1981-1982 Recession. “Another measure of weakness in the labor market is the historically high share of unemployment accounted for by the long-term unemployed-people who have been seeking work for more than 26 consecutive weeks. That share has topped 40 percent for the past two and a half years (see Figure 2-5). By comparison, that share was about 24 percent following the severe recession of 1981-1982.”

• And its not going to get better soon. The CBO Predicts That Long-Term Unemployment Rate Will Be “Little Changed For The Rest Of The Year.” “Still, even after accounting for both factors, the decline in participation since the recession began has been surprisingly large. During the first half of this year, the participation rate has shown no clear trend, and CBO expects that it will be little changed for the rest of the year.” 

This is the president who tells us his plans are working he just needs a little more time.  I shudder to think how bad off we will be should he get that time.