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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Both Gallup and Rasmussen Have MCCAIN CLOSING THE GAP

Good news for the McCain. Both Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls Have MCCAIN CLOSING GAP between himself and Senator Government. Both Polls have Obama's Lead slipping Gallup to 6 %, Rasmussen to 4% percent. Easily Do-able in the last 2 1/2 weeks of the campaign. Now it has to start showing up in the key states.Summaries of each tracking results follow:

Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, McCain 43% Obama maintains lead, but falls under 50%

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Monday through Wednesday shows Barack Obama with a 49%to 43% lead over John McCain among registered voters.


Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report.

Meanwhile, the current rolling average shows that McCain has done slightly better in the days leading into the debate. McCain's 43% share of the vote matches his best in the last two weeks. Today's average also represents the first time since the Sept. 30 - Oct. 2 average that Obama has received less than 50% support from registered voters, although Obama continues to maintain a significant lead among this group. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Gallup is presenting two likely voter estimates to see how preferences might vary under different turnout scenarios. The "expanded" model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. That model has generally produced results that closely match the registered voter figures, but with a lower undecided percentage, and show Obama up by six percentage points today, 51% to 45%.

The "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today's results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll's margin of error. -- Frank Newport


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. It’s the first time since September 25 that McCain’s support has reached 46%, but Obama has now enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-one straight days (see trends).

Today’s numbers do not reflect any impact from last night’s Presidential Debate. Results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The overwhelming majority of interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of the debate. Sunday morning’s results will be the first based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Take a moment to predict who you think will get a bounce in the polls from last night’s debate. Keep in mind that 60% of voters considered the first two Presidential Debates this year boring and 43% considered them useless.

Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

A commentary by Larry Sabato notes that “John McCain's position in the Electoral College continued to deteriorate in the previous seven days.” Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 85.9 % chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).

Sabato also looks at the House races and observes that “The good news just keeps on coming for Democrats.”

On the economic front, consumer and investor confidence remain very low, but Americans retain long-term confidence in the stock market. In fact, 62% believe the markets will go higher in value over the next five years.

State polling data has been released this week from Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Today, new data will be released from Ohio, Oregon and other states.

Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

1 comment:

Pat R said...

the fact that anyone is praising McCain for his performance in the third debate proves that he and Palin have lowered people's expectations down to nothing (don't forget, the VP debates were a tie!)