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Monday, October 26, 2009

Gallup Poll Proves Sarah Palin is Right and Newt Gingrich is Wrong

There is a wild three-way race going going on in the 23rd Congressional district in NY State, pitting liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens both of whom have been endorsed by ACORN against the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Scozzafava and Owens share many of the same positions on major issues such as Obamacare's public option, the Porkulus bill and Card Check. Hoffman's positions are more along the lines of a traditional conservative, he pushes fiscal responsibility and free enterprise.

This race is quickly becoming a microcosm of the battle of the soul for the Republican Party; Former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, former Senator Rick Santorum, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, current Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann, former Tennessee Senator and presidential candidate Fred Thompson, and former presidential candidate Steve Forbes have all backed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava. On the other hand, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) and former Speaker Newt Gingrich are backing Scozzafava who's stances are much to liberal for traditional GOP platforms and who's management of her campaign is quickly becoming a joke to observers of campaign politics.

Yesterday Politico, reported yesterday that the NRCC will throw good money after bad, spending  $200,000 to $300,000 on "TV ads propping up Scozzafava in the days leading up to the Nov. 3 contest and plans to keep up a near relentless barrage of press releases slamming Hoffman.

The NRCC is fighting a losing battle, Jim Geraghty is reporting on his blog that polling shows the conservative Hoffman is now beating Democrat Bill Owens 31 percent to 27 liberal Republican Scozzafava gets less than 20 percent of the vote.

What is it that Gingrich and the NRCC doesn't get? The latest Gallup poll has the answer, party affiliation does not matter as much as the fact that the United States remains a conservative leaning country:

....Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

"Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008."

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.
..35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.
...Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).
Based in the trends it seems that the President's attempt to push America toward the radical left is making independents take a giant step to the right. This is not only reflected by their self-identification but on their stance on issues:

  • The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.

On most issues Republicans, Democrats and Independents are moving toward the conservative point of view:

If the Republican Party truly want to return to power it has to open its eyes to the will of American people and its members.  Many Republicans are arguing that the party needs to hold on to all if its candidates whether they are conservative or not. This is a foolish argument which dooms the GOP to being so close to the Democrat position that they cannot provide a reason for point of difference. When was the last time you saw a TV commercial which said, "Our stuff is the same as the other guys?" It doesn't work in marketing, and it doesn't work in politics.

What the NY 23rd district campaign and the latest Gallup results prove is America is looking for a party to represent the conservative point of view, that's where Newt just doesn't "get it". The Tea Party movement changed all of that, Conservative Americans of ALL party affiliations are rising up to say "No More !" If the Republican Party doesn't want to represent those conservatives, they will find a party who will.

1 comment:

Always On Watch said...

Gingrich is one of those I'm-a-Republican-Party-no-matter-what guys.

I can't say that I'm of the same sort as I'm registered as an Independent.