DAILY GALLUP POLL- McCain/Palin 13 POINT SWING in 6 Days

The McCain post-convention bump has exceeded all expectations. Obama's post convention bump had him up by 8% (50-42%) last Tuesday, but now after a 13 point swing in lest than a week the McCain/Palin Ticket is LEADING by 5%. This is the first set of results that are wholly post RNC. Read the full Gallup Report below:

Gallup Daily: McCain’s Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead Leads Obama 49%-44% in first results conducted fully after GOP convention USA Election 2008

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

These results are based on Sept. 5-7 interviewing, and are the first in which all interviews were conducted following the completion of the GOP convention. Immediately prior to the convention's Sept. 1 start, Aug. 29-31 interviewing showed McCain with 43% support among registered voters, compared with 49% today. Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.

That is slightly better than Barack Obama's four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points.

Here is how the candidates' convention bounces compare with prior presidential candidates.

The net effect of the GOP convention bounce is that McCain has moved from a trailing position as the convention was getting underway (49% Obama, 43% McCain) to a leading position (49% McCain, 44% Obama).

McCain's current 49% share of the vote is his best performance in Gallup tracking to date. His five-point lead is his best since early May, when he led Obama by six points (48% to 42%). Obama has led throughout much of the campaign, and has led nearly all of the time since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

McCain has led Obama in each of the three individual nights' data comprising today's three-day rolling average, but the real question is whether he can sustain the lead as voter excitement around the convention fades. Since 1964, the first election year for which Gallup could reliably measure convention bounces, there have been only two examples in which one candidate consistently trailed until the time of his party's convention, but took the lead after and never relinquished it. Those occurred in 1988 for the elder George Bush and 1992 for Bill Clinton.

But there are also examples where a consistently trailing candidate took the lead after his party's convention, but later relinquished it -- Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Al Gore in 2000.

The most common pattern has been for one candidate to consistently lead prior to both conventions, and to maintain a lead during the convention period, even if his opponent got a convention bounce.

There is potential for further movement in the campaign, most notably with three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate scheduled for late September through mid-October, in addition to the intensive day-to-day campaigning between now and Election Day. -- Jeff Jones