RASMUSSEN BUMP !- McCain Takes Popular Lead-Closes in on Electoral College

For the first time since the start of the Democratic Convention, John McCain has taken a small lead in the Presidential tracking poll, 48% to 47%. While the lead itself is not statistically significant, the trend certainly is; last Tuesday Rasmussen showed Obama with a 6% point lead. Overall there has been a seven point swing in six days. Also significant is the fact that Obamas lead in women has shrunk from 14% to 3%. According to state polls, McCain has cut the Obama lead to ten Electoral votes. Read the report below:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Monday, September 08, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Barack Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).

McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say that they are certain they will cast their ballot for McCain and will not change their mind before November. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about Obama. Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends).

Throughout Election 2008, opinions have always been stronger about Obama than McCain. However, that gap is not as wide as it used to be. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama while 27% have a Very Unfavorable view. For McCain, those numbers are now 29% Very Favorable and 20% Very Unfavorable.

Later today, polling data will be released showing which candidate voters see as most likely to reach across the aisle and work in a bipartisan manner. Also, now that the conventions are behind us, state-by-state polling has resumed and the first new state data will be released at 6:00 p.m. Eastern Time tonight.

For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).

Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a % chance of winning in November. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.