UNREST IN IRAN ?

The importance of the movement lies elsewhere: It is now clear that Khomeinism has lost most of its appeal to young Iranians. "The idea of creating an ideal 'Islamic' state that would be the model for humanity may have sounded seductive three decades ago," says Ali Qavimi, a student activist. "Today, it sounds more like a sour joke."

It was political guru who pasted the words ITS THE ECONOMY STUPID ! on the bulletin board of the Clinton "war room" seventeen years ago. Those same words should be taken to heart by Iranian President Ahmadinejad. While he was "elected" on a promise to fix the economy, the Iranian economy was in the pits when gas prices were approaching 5 dollars/gallon, now that prices have fallen below 2 dollars, things have gotten much worse. All this leading to the beginnings of unrest against Khomeinism in general and more specifically President Ahmadinejad:

A STUDENT REBELLION By AMIR TAHERI
December 10, 2008 --

'A WAR zone": That's how the official Islamic Re public News Agency de scribed the campus of Tehran University on Monday after a hit-and-run battle between youths and security forces lasting several hours.

IRNA blames "paramilitary groups" and "militias masquerading as students" for clashes that ended with dozens of injuries and arrests.

The disturbances started Saturday, as universities marked Students' Day with campus gatherings. It quickly became clear that this year's ceremonies were designed as a series of protests against the leadership in Tehran. Posters with such slogans as "Down with the Despots" and "We Want Democracy" indicated that this time the students wouldn't be satisfied with a formal ceremony with a few official speeches, as has been the case for years.

The authorities had hoped to transform this year's Student Day into a nationwide show of support for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration. "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei was to address the Tehran U students in what would've been an unprecedented occasion, while Ahmadinejad was to visit the Science and Technology University. Two dozen top officials, including commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were enlisted to address campus audiences in some 50 universities nationwide.

But just hours before the big show was to start, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad were both warned to stay away from the campuses: The security forces couldn't ensure their safety.

As news of the cancelations spread, some student activists saw this as a victory. "The dictators dare not show their faces," said a spokesman for the Office of Consolidating Unity, one of many groups organizing the protest. On most campuses, the new was greeted with shouts of "Democracy Now!"

The authorities decided to take no risks, sending in thousands of troops to cordon off the campuses in Tehran and at least 12 other cities.

Could this develop into a nationwide movement that could upset the regime's calculations before the June election? Is Iran entering a pre-revolutionary phase that could threaten the Khomeinist regime?

Well, many groups in and outside the establishment doubtless see the coming campaign as an opportunity to either reshuffle the leadership or open the way for regime change. But the students, on their own, are in no position to provide the energy needed for meaningful change.
Khomeinism no longer enjoys the support it once did among students, but it remains a significant presence, often acting as arbiter between other forces with rival ideologies.

The dominant faction among Khomeinist students still believes in its version of the revolution and hopes to save it by dislodging Ahmadinejad. These students are desperately looking for someone from the establishment who might be able to challenge Ahmadinejad next June. They also hope that the next president would curtail the powers of the "supreme guide," helping Iran develop into "a normal republic" rather than a theocracy.

Beyond that, students are divided into numerous groups, from old-style Marxists to monarcho-nationalists and secularist democrats.

Student activists may have succeeded in scaring Khamenei and Ahmadinejad away from the campuses, but they're unlikely to achieve any significant change on their own.

The importance of the movement lies elsewhere: It is now clear that Khomeinism has lost most of its appeal to young Iranians. "The idea of creating an ideal 'Islamic' state that would be the model for humanity may have sounded seductive three decades ago," says Ali Qavimi, a student activist. "Today, it sounds more like a sour joke."

The "reformists" hope to salvage something of the wreck of Khomeinism by amending the constitution. Ibrahim Yazdi, once one of Khomeini's closest aides and now the leader of a loyal opposition group, thinks that eliminating the position of "supreme guide" would open the way for the creation of a "viable system."

Yazdi, along with a number of other Khomeinist insiders, are trying to persuade former President Muhammad Khatami to enter the presidential race against Ahmadinejad. "Khatami is the only one whose candidacy cannot be easily vetoed by the authorities," Yazdi says. "He is also the only one with the stature to propose the changes needed to make the system workable."

The student movement reflects these tensions inside the regime and in broader Iranian society. There is a general feeling in Iran today that things can't go on as they are - that, somewhere along the line, something has to give.

The "loyal opposition" hopes to encourage peaceful change, a hope shared by perhaps a majority of the students. But with each passing day, more Iranians, including many students, may find it hard to ignore those who preach violent regime change.

Amir Taheri's latest book is "The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution."