Hezbollah Loses. A Major Loss For Terrorism? Maybe not

The good news is the Hezbollah led March 8th coalition lost the the Lebanese Election, it may also be that the bad news is the fact that the Hezbollah led March 8th coalition lost the the Lebanese Election.

First the good news the Hezbollah coalition lost and at the very least, it is a loss of face for Syria and Iran:

Anti-Syrian bloc celebrates Lebanon election win

By Laila Bassam

BEIRUT, June 7 (Reuters) - An anti-Syrian coalition defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon's parliamentary election on Sunday in a blow to Syria and Iran and a boost to the United States.

"Congratulations to Lebanon, congratulations to democracy, congratulations to freedom," the coalition's leader Saad al-Hariri said in a victory speech at his mansion in Beirut.

The outcome was also welcome news for Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which back Hariri's "March 14" alliance - the date of a 2005 rally against Syria's military presence in Lebanon.

"We have lost the election," conceded a senior politician close to the bloc of Shi'ite groups Hezbollah and Amal and Christian ally Michel Aoun.

"We accept the result as the will of the people."

The vote will be viewed as a stinging setback to Aoun, who held the biggest bloc of Christian MPs in the outgoing assembly and had hoped to seal his claim to speak for the Christians.

A source in Hariri's campaign predicted a decisive victory, with his bloc taking at least 70 of the assembly's 128 seats.

Perhaps 100 of the seats were virtually decided in advance, thanks to sectarian voting patterns and political deals, with Sunni and Shi'ite communities voting solidly on opposing sides.

The real electoral battle centred on Christian areas, where Aoun was up against former President Amin Gemayel's Phalange Party, Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces and independents.

Lebanon's rival camps are at odds over Hezbollah's guerrilla force, which outguns the Lebanese army, and ties with Syria, which dominated Lebanon for three decades until 2005.

The likeliest outcome of the poll is another "national unity" government, analysts say.

The bad news is also that Hezbollah lead March 8th coalition lost the the Lebanese Election. As Barry Rubin warned two weeks ago, a Hezbollah victory might have been the worst thing for the terrorist group because it might have led to a premature confrontation with the United States:

Hizbullah's long-term strategic goal is the domination of Lebanon, and the establishment of an Islamic republic in the country. However, at the present time, the movement and its backers in Teheran and Damascus are primarily concerned with the safeguarding of the movement's military and sociopolitical structures.

This goal would not be best served by a push for the unambiguous domination of the political system.

A government dominated by the March 8 coalition, and including no representation from March 14, would certainly represent a very significant symbolic achievement for the Iran-led regional bloc, of which Hizbullah is a senior member. But it might also serve to set a Hizbullah-dominated Lebanon on a course of premature confrontation with the United States. It would mean a reduction or elimination of US aid to the Lebanese military.

Good or bad news, the Issues of Lebanon and their Syrian/Iranian handlers, are much more complex than the results of one election. Before the terrorirst grip on Lebanon is eased the real culprits, Iran and Syria need to be controlled.