Harry Reid's Reelection Prospects Worsen, Obama Visit Cost Him Votes

The latest opinion polls in Nevada show that Harry Reid's reelection prospects continue to fade even worse for the Senate Majority Leader, the recent trip by President Obama to help the Senator actually cost him some votes.

The latest Mason-Dixon Poll reported that most people were unmoved by the President's visit, but of those who were effected the vast majority said that the Presidential visit made them less likely to vote for Reid.

As far as the overall race, Sue Lowden has emerged as a clear leader among GOP candidates fighting for the chance to run against Reid in November, but the survey shows that Reid would lose to any of the expected candidates.

But the polling done for the Las Vegas Review-Journal also shows that if the Tea Party fields an independent candidate Reid would win.

In that case, Reid would draw 36 percent of voters, while the Republican nominee would get 32 percent and the Tea Party candidate 18 percent if the election were held today.

Pollster Brad Coker said the numbers figure to change depending on the identity of the Republican and the Tea Party candidate, but at this point, "it does show that a three-way vote would help Reid."


Brandon Hall, Reid's campaign manager, said: "For the first time, the Review-Journal is releasing a poll that shows Senator Reid winning."

The "Tea Party of Nevada" filed organizational paperwork in January with the Nevada secretary of state. John Ashjian, a Las Vegas businessman and political newcomer, is being mentioned as its Senate contender.

David Damore, a University of Nevada, Las Vegas political science professor, said it would be unlikely for the Tea Party to draw 18 percent of the vote in November, "but even eight or nine percent could make a difference."


It may be Reid's clearest path to re-election in a year when voters are clearly expressing dissatisfaction with Washington, according to other numbers in the poll of 625 likely Nevada voters taken Monday through Wednesday. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll also shows that Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, another presumed Republican front-runner, continue to hold leads and may have widened them slightly over the past month in head-to-head matchups with Reid:


■ Lowden, a businesswoman and former state senator, bests Reid by a 52-39 percent margin if the vote were held today, according to the poll. Her lead in polling from Jan. 5-7 was 50-40.


■ Tarkanian, a Las Vegas businessman and attorney, would prevail over Reid by 51-40 percent today. In January, he held a 49-41 lead.

Considering the fact that Nevada voters and not enamored by the health-care plan, if Reid pushes through Obamacare via reconciliation his reelection prospects will fall even further.