Iran/Brazil Deal Makes Israeli Attack Much More Likely

Yesterday, American diplomats got caught with their pants down when Iran signed an agreement with Turkey and Brazil to send  about half of its nuclear fuel, 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to Turkey in exchange for higher-enriched nuclear reactor fuel to be used in a medical research reactor in Tehran. Of course the other half could be used to continue Iran's nuclear weapons program.

So the sanctions process continues, today Hillary Clinton said the United States and other major world powers have agreed on a draft resolution that could impose a fourth round of United Nations sanctions on Iran. That may be true, but even the weak sanctions she  worked out with China and Russia will never pass.

The VOA reported that Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast accused Western nations Tuesday of  "seeking excuses" to avoid resolving the nuclear dispute with his country. Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said talk of sanctions could "spoil the atmosphere" and lead to an "escalation" of statements that might "provoke" Iranian public opinion.

The bottom line is by going half way, Iran has once again out-maneuvered the United States. Our 17-month long out reach to the rouge state has done nothing but put them in a much better position to avoid sanctions. It has also put Israel in position much closer to having to attack Iran to protect herself.

Along with the deal two other recent events make an Israeli attack more likely. Israeli  Deputy Prime Minister Yaalon (a former armed forces chief) was addressing a conference on air power, he said Israel's experience in carrying out air strikes against terrorists could easily be extended to distant sorties in Iran. "There is no doubt that the technological capabilities, which improved in recent years, have improved range and aerial refuelling capabilities, and have brought about a massive improvement in the accuracy or ordnance and intelligence," he said.

The other issue is the deterioration of the Israeli/United States relation. Under Barack Obama, the  United States has lost its image as a power broker and protector of Israel. The US is not the player that it used to be. Just the fact that this "deal" was made without the participation of the United States proves that.

There are very few issues that all four major political parties in Israel agree on. Iran is one of them. There is complete agreement on the need to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Israel WILL attack if she has no other options. Obama's policies and this surprise deal takes the sanctions option away and makes an Israeli preemptive attack much more likely.