What The Polls Aren't Showing

In a little more than six weeks Americans will be voting in the only poll that counts. But over the past week or so, many of my conservative friends have been complaining about the presidential polls being biased toward the Democratic Party. What they mean is the polls are weighing their samples as if there was any where between 7%-11% more Democrats than Republicans in the expected population.  The extra "Democrats" weigh the results in President Obama's favor.

These polls are not acknowledging the change in the electorate since 2008.  Not only has the GOP grown faster than the Democratic Party, but Republican enthusiasm is higher this time around which should lead to a better turnout for Romney's party than Obama's.

My friend Ed Morrissey at Hot Air has been at the forefront of pointing this out since the beginning of the primary season. But what Ed has also been pointing out is you can't really get crazy about polls either way at least now.  Every pollster wants to be able to brag that they called the election correctly, so as we get closer to election day, look for the polling to reflect a more accurate party split (D+ 3-4%) and a closer election (and look for this site to pay closer attention to the polls).

What we know for sure is that this race is still as tight as all heck and in the past month, Romney has gone from slightly ahead but within the margin of error to slightly behind but within the margin of error.

Last night I was privy to a different kind of poll, anecdotal but interesting just the same.  I went to a friend's house to break the Yom Kippur fast.  Most of the people at his house were die-hard, Kool-aid drinking, Jewish Obama voters in 2008. A few of them hadn't voted for a Republican President since Ronald Reagan ran against Jimmy Carter over three decades ago.

All of them said they may not vote for Romney, but there is no way they will be voting for Obama.  All of them said their liberal friends, family and children all voted for Obama last time and are saying they will never make that  same mistake again.

My friend, who is a doctor,  told us that many of his patients say they had never voted for a GOP candidate but will this time.

Interestingly among the Jewish people I spoke to last night, Israel was only part of the reason they were changing their minds.   As one person said, "I have worked hard all my life to be successful, how DARE Obama criticize people for achieving success!"

Another said, "Jeff you called it.  I laughed at you when you told us what his {Obama's] economic polices would be, and that he would be awful for Israel, but you were right and I was wrong."

The people I broke fast with their long lists of people who supported Obama in 2008 and will not support him this time around does not represent anything scientific, nor is it something that is in any way predictive voter behavior in election day.

What this impromptu focus group does reflect is this feeling I have had since June when Romney became the presumptive nominee and people began to coalesce behind him.  There is a grass-roots building in this country that none of the pollsters are getting to--not the Democratic party skewed polls or the fair ones, friends in other states have told me the same. They have seen Romney/Ryan lawn signs in neighborhoods that used to be filled with Obama/Gore signs.  They have friends who begin sentences with, "I have never voted for a Republican but....." or  "Please don't tell anyone but..." even one or two "I would never admit this in public but..." All of them following the phrase with I am voting for Romney this time.

In the end, I am going to follow my friend Ed's advice, look at the polls, report them if you find something interesting,  but don't hang your hat on any polling---especially in a close election. The only real poll will happen on November 6th.