Writing in Nature Geoscience, researchers say the 15-year hiatus will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades. But (even though they can't explain why it stopped "getting warm") long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.
The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before” according Dr Alexander Otto University of Oxford. Which means those of us who live in New York and expect it to be under water can put away the scuba gear.
According to these researchers:
The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.
But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.
An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.Transient nature
Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.
Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).
But in this new analysis, by only including the temperatures from the last decade, the projected range would be 0.9-2.0C.
The report suggests that warming in the near term will be less than forecastThis is my favorite part:
"The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone," said Dr Alexander Otto from the University of Oxford.
"The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before."
The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected.
"We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing," said Dr Otto.This folks is what happens when you create computer models to prove what you want them to prove. The Global Warming Hoaxers finally looked out the window and realize that it hasn't gotten warmer since Monica Lewinsky was ruining a good Cuban cigar. They have no real idea why it stopped, but they promise it will start again soon! They Swear! No Really, they mean it!
Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not real?
"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said.
In 1975, when I took Earth Science as a freshman in college we learned that the earth was long overdue for another ice age. It took 20 years for me to realize they weren't talking about the series of animated children's movies.
These same global warming scientists cannot explain why it was warmer in the medieval period, centuries before the industrial revolution, than it is today.
The answer is easy, Earth has natural cycles of warmth and cold. Some scientists even believe that when the cycles become short and we fluctuate between short periods warm and cold it means that an ice age is approaching.
According to data from Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations there is regular pattern of Ice Ages which last about 100,000 years, separated by a 12,000 year interglacial period.
Right Now we are nearing the end of the Interglacial Period meaning that if you don't have a good winter coat may be time to buy one. But even more important is that the Hoaxers may have it backwards because some scientists believe the CO2 isn't causing the warming instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.
The only thing we can prove today is that temperatures are NOT going up--the climate change theorists don't know why but are sure it is going to begin getting hotter again soon. They can't explain why it stops but they know the computer programs they created indicate that the stop is temporary (because they say it's so). Something is wrong with warming models that predict warming in a cooling world.
Allow me to suggest that these scientists put away the computers and look at their windows, because there is nothing to indicate the warming trend will re-start, or that it won't start getting cold real fast. After all despite their screams The Arctic Ice Cap has been GROWING.
There is an old proverb my Mother of blessed memory, used to say "Man plans and God laughs." Such is with these global warming hoaxers, they create brilliant computer models but they don't have all the data to make them accurate, so they make them say what they want them to say.
Somewhere up there, the creator of this world may be having a good chuckle.