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Friday, May 30, 2014

Rasmussen: McConnell Jumps to a 7% Lead Over Grimes in KY Senate Race

Before the Republican Primary, Senate Minority leader Mich McConnell was in a virtual tie with his Democratic Party candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes.  A week and a half later Rasmussen reports  he has a 7% lead indicating that the State's Republicans are uniting behind their candidate.

Overall McConnell has a 48% -41% lead amongst likely voters and a 76%-18% lead with Republicans, which is a larger margin than Grimes lead amongst her party (67%-27%). Most surprising is the "gender gap" or lack of with the female vote. Grimes has a slight 45%-44% lead among woman. McConnell has a wide 51%-36% lead with men.

McConnell is slightly under water with his favorability rating (47% favorable vs 48% unfavorable) but Grimes isn't doing much better  (44% favorable vs 43% unfavorable).

Despite the supposed success of the Kentucky enrollment, 60% of the State's likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Obamacare. More substantial is the fact that 83% of voters believe the economy is not doing well.

The president himself has a 60% negative rating, not just because of the health law and economy, but because of Obama's war on the coal industry, a key part of Kentucky's economy. 54% of likely voters believed Obama's coal regulations would hurt the economy and by a 48%-28% margin believe Obama is trying to outlaw the coal industry (24% undecided).

For the GOP to take over the Senate they have to pick up six new seats. Obviously it will be much easier if they hold on to the seats they already have, so the Rasmussen poll is good news for Republicans.  There is however, five and a half months before the election and a lot can happen before then.