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Monday, May 5, 2014

USA Today/Pew Poll-Looking Real Bad For Democrats

If one is to believe the new USA Today/Pew the Democratic party is facing some real bad news in 2014 and things are starting to slip a bit in 2016.

According to the poll voters exibit the strongest tilt to Republican candidates at this point in a midterm year in at least two decades, including before "waves" in 1994 and 2010 that swept the GOP into power.  Democrats are saddled by angst over the economy, skepticism about the health care law and low approval of the president.
By more than 2-1, 65%-30%, Americans say they want the president elected in 2016 to pursue different policies and programs than the Obama administration, rather than similar ones.
Which means if Hillary does run in 2016, she would have to run against Obama as well as the Republican.
In the 2014 elections, registered voters are inclined to support the Republican candidate over the Democrat in their congressional district by 47%-43%. That 4-percentage-point edge may seem small, but it's notable because Democrats traditionally fare better among registered voters than they do among those who actually cast ballots, especially in low-turnout midterms.

"It's huge," says former Virginia congressman Tom Davis, who twice chaired the Republican congressional campaign committee. He says its potential impact is tempered only because House Republicans already hold a 233-seat majority, including most swing seats. Even so, the friendly landscape, if it holds, could help the GOP bolster its majority in the House and gain the six seats needed to claim control of the Senate.

Their lead in the generic congressional ballot is the biggest at this point for Republicans in the past 20 years. In 1994, when the GOP would gain control of the House and Senate, Democrats held a 2-point advantage in the spring of the election year. In 2010, when Republicans would win back the House, the two sides were even.
The poll shows that Americans are unhappy about the direction of the country and are unhappy about the economy and they are not happy with Obamacare.
The president's job approval rating remains anemic in the new survey, at 44% approve, 50% disapprove.
It is still the economy stupid!
Though economists report an economic recovery is underway, most people say they aren't feeling its benefits. By more than 2-1, 40%-17%, they assess the nation's economic conditions as poor, not excellent or good. That's essentially unchanged from a year ago.
(...)Most of those surveyed say their own families aren't prospering: 39% rate their financial situation as "only fair" and 23% call it poor. They do see a bit of hope on the horizon. Looking ahead, 59% say things are getting better for them, though most say only a little better. One in four say things are getting worse.
And voters are believing that the GOP is better suited to fix the economy.
Perhaps the most disturbing sign for Democrats: By 43%-39%, Americans say following the economic policies of Republican congressional leaders would do more to strengthen the economy over the next few years than following the policies of the
(...)What's more, 26% say they think of their vote as a vote against Obama; 16% as a vote for him. The president looms as more of a drag on Democrats than he was four years ago, when Democratic setbacks cost the party control of the House. Then, by 24%-20%, people saw their vote as a vote for Obama.
While this poll looks very good for Republicans, it is crucial to remember that the election is still six month's away, there is plenty of time for opinions to change more then once between now and November.

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