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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Proof--Poll Showing Grimes Leading McConnell Is An Outlier

On Monday, a Kentucky’s Bluegrass Poll, conducted by the polling firm Survey USA for the state’s two largest newspapers and a pair of TV stations, showed Ms. Grimes leading Mr. McConnell 46% to 44% among likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The Grimes camp celebrated the poll, claiming it proved that Ms. Grimes has taken over the momentum in the race.

Incumbent, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called the poll an outlier, appearing while other recent polls indicated he was expanding his lead.

On the progressive MSNBC commentators seem to be agreeing with Grimes, incorrectly comparing the Bluegrass/Survey USA Poll to the CBS News poll using different methodology which was released the day before.  According to those pundits and others like them Grimes made an 8% point gain in 24 hours. An almost impossible gain, especially when there is no major mistake/incident/national event.

The Bluegrass poll certainly looks very different than other polls, in fact every time the Bluegrass has done a poll it has looked like an outlier. Below is a list of every poll in the Kentucky Senate race per "Real Clear Politics." Notice that out of the 4 polls showing Grimes with the lead three were conducted by Bluegrass.

The methodology of the Bluegrass poll is different than the others and that might account for the difference.  It is a "robo-poll," without human interaction. mode. Per the poll's methodology page:
This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit
Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically.
Back in 2012 many Republicans were fooled by the Presidential results. Most polls showed Romney losing but GOP supporters chose to believe the few polls which indicated a Romney victory (word is Karl Rove is still waiting to call Ohio).

In 2014 it seems that many, including the Grimes Camp and most MSNBC commentators are making the same mistake as Republicans did in 2012.

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