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Monday, December 1, 2014

IPCC Founder: WHO Report Predicting Deaths From Global Warming Exaggerated By Ten-Fold

Dr Indur Goklany, who was a member of the delegation that set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and helped developed its first assessment report, has slammed a WHO report of 250,000 deaths/year from global warming between 2030 and 2050 as preposterous.

The WHO's released in the run up to the UN Summit on climate change in September claims that 95,000 more people would die each year from malnutrition, 60,000 from malaria, 48,000 from diarrhea and 38,000 elderly who would die from heat exposure, all because of the global warming hypothesis.

Dr. Goklany's rebuttal published by The Global Warming Policy Foundation, called "Unhealthy Exaggeration, The Who Report On Climate Change (embedded below) points out the WHO report account for the human species' ability to adapt. In other words, like most progressive predictions it assumes that mankind is too stupid to adapt.

The briefing sheet put out with the study does not explain the assumptions made when creating the predictions. Rather, that info is buried in a summary table in the full report. Under the column heading “potential options not included in the model” is the revelation that the diarrhea prediction does not include the possibility of “improved water, sanitation and hygiene”; that coastal flooding deaths do not include “population relocation”, and that deaths by exposure to heat aren’t avoided through “improved heat health protection measures; early warning systems”. 

According to Dr. Goklany the WHO report predicting the scale of deaths from global warming in decades to come has exaggerated the threat ten-fold.

Dr Goklany writes in the report embedded below
It [the WHO] ignores the fact that people and societies are not potted plants; that they will actually take steps to reduce, if not nullify, real or perceived threats to their life, limb and well-being. Thus, if the seas rise around them, heatwaves become more prevalent, or malaria, diarrhoeal disease and hunger spread, they will undertake adaptation measures to protect themselves and reduce, if not eliminate, the adverse consequences.

The WHO study assumes, explicitly or implicitly, that in the future the most vulnerable populations – low income countries in Africa, Europe, southeast Asia and the western Pacific – will not similarly avail themselves of technology or take any commonsense steps to protect themselves. This is despite many suitable measures already existing.
The question over adaptation is not the only criticism Dr Goklany levels at the report. Also problematic is the WHO’s exaggeration on the rate of global warming – they predict a temperature increase of 0.15˚C per decade, whereas empirical evidence from the MET office shows current warming of 0.04˚C per decade. And satellite data shows there has been no global warming for over 18 years.

Dr. Goklany concludes:
Because of its willful exaggerations, he WHO study risks scaring people into taking ill-considered costly actions to limit greenhouse gases rather than focusing on higher priority global health issues such as hunger, malaria and diarrhoeal diseases, which can be addressed at a fraction of the cost.
Read the full report below:


Jeff Dunetz said...

Everything coming from the Left is exaggerated at least TEN FOLD if not more - how else do you pull heart strings of basic voters.

Wonder what Gruber thinks.....

Jeff Dunetz said...

There is no empirical evidence that CO2 is a major cause of atmospheric global warming. Catastrophic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is based on an unproven theory and computers which overemphasize CO2's role in climate change and de-emphasize the role of clouds, solar cycles, ocean cycles and other natural causes of climate change. These computers have been notoriously wrong almost all of the time (when compared to real world data) and have been compared to a sports team that played the entire season without winning a game.

During the last ice age CO2 levels fell to 180 ppm and plants started to shut down. If CO2 levels had reached 150 ppm or lower, plants would have died off and all plant and animal life on the planet would have died. We currently have global CO2 levels at just under 400 ppm. Green houses regularly keep CO2 concentrations at 1000-1200 ppm because the plants grow better. In the past, CO2 levels have been at several thousand parts per million and plants and animals thrived. US submarines try to keep CO2 levels below 8,000 ppm. Federal OSHA standards set CO2 maximums at 5,000 ppm. We are much closer to being CO2 deprived than we are being threatened by too much atmospheric CO2. Plants thrive on more CO2- that is a good thing. CO2 is not a pollutant. It is a colorless and odorless gas that comprises only .04% of the atmosphere. The most predominant greenhouse gas is water vapor.

The world has not experienced atmospheric global warming in the past 18 years despite a significant increase in CO2 emissions during this period. If CO2 was a direct and significant cause of global warming, we would have experienced global warming during the 18 year pause. We did not.

Climate change is natural and has been occurring since the formation of the planet. The 18 year pause just proves that the skeptics were right all along-natural causes of climate change are more powerful than the insubstantial effects that human generated CO2 has on the world's climate. The hysterics' alarms over CO2 causing catastrophic global warming have been described accurately as the flea wagging the dog.

Proof positive that CAGW is about power, politics and greed is the fact that every time the facts change, the CAGW cult moves the goal posts . They have at least 65 excuses for the more than 18 year pause in global warming and the failure of the CAGW climate models. The CAGW cult blames any unusual (but normal) climate event on global warming with no scientific proof. This is often done with a scary picture or one that pulls on the heart strings, and the text of the article will say "could be caused", "is consistent with", or "may be caused by" global warming. This is code for we have no scientific evidence but we want to scare you anyway so we can tax CO2 emissions.