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Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Latest CNN Poll Shows Hillary's Numbers Tanking , GOP Field Tightens

CNN released its latest election poll Tuesday morning and the numbers continue to show a deterioration of support for presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton driven by the fact she has gone underwater in many of the qualitative areas.  On the GOP side things have tightened, Florida Senator Marco Rubio has taken the lead from Jeb Bush and some of the qualitatives about his brother reflect a bad omen for Bush (the full study is embedded below).

While former Secretary of State Clinton sill has an overwhelming lead among Democratic voters 60%, she was the choice of 69% in April. During the same period the support amongst Democrats have grown particularly Joe Biden who is not expected to run ( from 11-14%), and Bernie Sanders (from 5-10%).

And for the first time in a dozen years more adult voters of any persuasion have an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Clinton (50%) than favorable (44%). Maybe driven by Hillary's faux pas regarding her wealth most voters feel that she does not care about "people like you (52-47%).

Clinton also has problems on the trust issue as 57% of voters do not feel she is honest and trustworthy. Even so they don't believe the release of emails by the State Dept. will show wrongdoing (61%), but they are dissatisfied with the way she's handled Benghazi (58-48%) and sorry Rep. Cummings, they don't believe the GOP has gone too far in their investigations of Benghazi (51-41%).

The mid- April CNN poll reported Jeb Bush ahead with GOP voters at 17% followed by Walker, Rubio, Paul, Huckabee and Cruz.  While it's still early and numbers are very tight, amongst the leaders Bush has seen 4% decline, Paul 3%, and  Walker 2%. Depending how (or if ) they do tie breaking the top ten (11) who would be participating in the first debate is delineated by the red line in the chart below. Everyone from Trump up will participate.

Keep in mind that many of the GOP candidates including Bush, Perry, Jindal, Christie, Kasich, and Trump have not yet declared, once they do one can expect a short term jump in support, which may tighten things up even further. 

 As for the head to heads vs. Clinton each of the GOP candidates for whom the question was asked (only the five below) have significantly closed the gap with Clinton. As is stands today Rand Paul is only one 1% behind, but the full affect of his recent Senate Homeland Security actions haven't been felt, his ad hominem attacks against his own party and anyone who disagrees with his opinion may hurt him with fellow Republicans and independents.

Jeb Bush's history seems to be weighing like an anchor on his support. By a 56-27% margin the fact that his father and brother were presidents make voters less likely to vote for Jeb. Although voters are split on whether he would be a lot like his brother  (49%) or not (47%).

On the other hand Hillary's history isn't hurting her as much as many voters will vote for her because her husband was president as won't vote for her (39% tie). And most voters believe she is not like Bubba (54-44%).

The first Republican debate is two months away and with this large of a field the GOP rankings can change very quickly as we saw in 2012.  And while Hillary seems safe with a sizable lead,  if the scandals keep dripping out they way they have, there is time for her sinking ratings to become a collapse.  At this point however, that is not likely to happen.

UPDATE: At Hot Air Ed Morrissey  points out that in all recent polls Hillary Clinton's favorably ratings have already turned to the "dark side" of the poll--as usual its a great analysis and a must read.

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