We all know it is still early and the first debate is still two months away, but the campaign has started making it worth a quick look at the race for the GOP presidential nod.
The chart above represents the Real Clear Politics national average as of June 10th. Based on the above all the candidates from Rick Perry up would be invited to participate in the first debate on August 6th. As we get closer to the Iowa caucus on February 1st, 2016 we will also look at the polls for the state primaries/caucuses about to be decided.
Thoughts:
Bush: Jeb will be announcing next week. He expected to be far ahead by now, which is probably why he changed campaign managers. Word is that he will not make the $100 million he thought his PAC would be able to raise before he officially announced. Jeb's got experience and name recognition that may help him in the end. On the other hand his name recognition is one of the reasons he leads the field right now. The debates will be crucial for Bush because he has to convert the name recognition for real support.
Walker: Expect him to have a bump when he finally announces. But it will be interesting to see if the gaffes he made earlier in the campaign will re-appear once he has to face all of his opponents. Foreign policy will be part of the campaign more than any other election in the recent past; Scott Walker has to avoid gaffes and prove his foreign policy creds.
Rubio: Marco has drawn raves for the way he has run his campaign so far. The recent NY Times non-scandals are an indication that "Team Hillary" is frightened of him. Rubio has hit on a Kennedy-like new generation theme. He should be doing better than he is....his campaign needs to figure out why.
Carson: There are rumors that his campaign is falling apart, but a Carson insider promises me that story is false. The bigger problem became apparent when he was interviewed by Hugh Hewitt and had to face questions about foreign policy, it was a disaster. Not his policy but his lack of knowledge. Dr. Carson is a good decent man but look for him to sink in the polls the first time he has to answer a debate question about international relations.
Huckabee: May very well win Iowa because they love him there, but he will be a one-hit-wonder. Many of his wins in 2007/8 were a result of the fact that he was the last non-McCain standing. Hopefully FNC will take him back because he will be out of the race before tax day 2016.
Paul: He is still dead to me, and based on the freedom act debate where he filibustered a bill that took his objections into account...he is also becoming "dead" many Republicans. He had 10% in the RCP poll before his filibuster, he's now down to 8.8%.
Cruz: When I met Cruz in Feb. he impressed me as someone who really believes what he says. Perhaps the GOP voters don't believe or like what he is saying. Ted Cruz has lost a quarter of his support in the past month.
Christie: Before "bridgegate" people were saying he was the odds-on GOP winner. He hasn't announced yet, perhaps he should forget about running and clean up New Jersey's finances (they stink) stopping before he starts will save him tons of money and lots of embarrassment. Sorry Chris Christie your ship sailed in 2012.
Trump: When Democratic pundits talk about the GOP field as the "clown car" they are wrong...except in the case of Donald Trump, the bloviating billionaire buffoon of birtherism. This guy is a marketing genius who will do anything for publicity, like run for president. The only thing the guy has going for is he has a Jewish daughter. Thankfully for America the man has no chance, but the question arises "Why is he wasting our time?" That's easy..ego and marketing the Trump name.
Perry: His announcement speech was spectacular, he has the knowledge and experience for the job, however he also has that horrible debate performance in 2012. He needs to prove that he can overcome that faux pas in the upcoming debates. He also needs to stay or improve from his number 10 position or the former Texas gov. will not participate in the debates.
Santorum: At a rally in possibly his strongest state Iowa yesterday, four people showed up. Santorum really believes that his 2012 support had nothing to do with the fact that he was the last non-Romney standing, he is wrong. If the former Pennsylvania senator is not out of the race by South Carolina, he will be out soon after.
Kasich: On Monday night's Hugh Hewitt Show, Hugh and Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard seemed convinced that the Ohio gov. has a chance to win the nomination. Kasich has an angry, gruff style that rivals that of John McCain but he doesn't look as presidential as the 2008 loser. The only way Kasich wins the nomination is if somebody publishes a picture of all the other candidates in a giant orgy with little children.
Fiorina: My contacts tell me that her crowds are growing..he performances on the national stage have been excellent as has her attacks on Hillary Clinton. Hopefully she will move into the top ten so she can participate in the early debates, she wont be the eventual winning candidate, but Carly Fiorina adds to the discussion.
Graham: Lindsey Graham will get three votes; his, John McCain's and Caitlyn Jenner.
Jindal: A tragedy--this guy is a successful governor, a true conservative, and possibly the smartest person running. Bobby Jindal has everything but support.
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