OBAMA Takes a DIVE in Daily Tracking Polls

I guess the rest of American felt the same way about Barak Obama's explanations about Jeremiah Wright as we did. In the latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking poll Barak Obama went from an eight point lead to to a one point lead in 24 hours.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton essentially even in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. It’s Obama 46% Clinton 45% (see recent daily results). This reflects an unusually sharp change from yesterday’s results when Obama led by eight points and reached the 50% level of support for the first time. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Last night’s results were very favorable for Clinton and it remains to be seen whether this marks a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise. Single night results are based upon very small samples and are more volatile than the overall tracking poll.

Looking to November, John McCain now holds a slight lead over both Democrats in the General Election. It’s McCain 47% Obama 42% and McCain 46% Clinton 42% (see recent daily results). It appears that Clinton’s challenges to Obama may be helping McCain at least in the short-term. McCain’s polling numbers against Obama began improving during the run-up to the hard-fought Democratic Primaries in Ohio and Texas. Obama has a three-percentage point edge over McCain among unaffiliated voters but is currently supported by just 65% of Democrats. By way of comparison, McCain earns the vote from 80% of Republicans.

New Rasmussen Reports polling data also shows McCain with a six-point lead over both Obama and Clinton in Ohio. That’s an improvement for McCain relative to polls conducted before the Democratic Primaries in Texas and Ohio. McCain has also recently gained ground against the Democrats in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. Noting these trends, a Rasmussen Reports look at the race suggests that John McCain may be the luckiest man on the planet since Ringo Starr. The Presidential race in 2008 should be the Democrats to lose and in many ways they are currently doing their best to lose it.

Democrats now lead in states with 247 Electoral Votes while the GOP leads in states with 229 Electoral Votes (see summary of recent state general election polling). Without “leaners”, the Democrats lead 214 to 189. New polling data in Connecticut and California show that both Democrats continue to lead McCain in those states. In both cases, Obama has a healthier lead over McCain than does Clinton.

Nationally, McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 41%. Obama is now viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters nationwide, unfavorably by 49%. Clinton earns positive reviews from 47% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 51% (see recent daily results).

Geraldine Ferraro, the former Vice Presidential candidate who recently made controversial remarks about Barack Obama, is viewed favorably by just 37% of voters. Fifty percent (50%) have an unfavorable view. Most Americans disagree with her comments but most also believe that Obama has received better treatment from the media than Clinton.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Sunday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups and favorable ratings.

Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 72.3% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 27.9%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.