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Friday, August 21, 2009

Top Scientist Says Cancel Kyoto Follow -Up, Global Warming Science Is NOT There

Dr. Syun-Ichi Akasofu, was the the director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks from its establishment in 1998 until January of 2007. Dr Akasofu is one of the leading scientists in global warming and the effect of CO2 on the atmosphere.

This week Doctor Akasofu stunned the global warming Mafia by publishing a document which recommends canceling the upcoming Copenhagen Conference which iswhere the successor to the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty to reduce CO2 emissions, is due to be signed.

Akasofu reasons that because the USA and China will be developing coal for some years, until they can build out their nuclear energy capacity any promises to make cuts will be what he calls "rhetorical". India has already politely declined Western advice to de-industrialise (before it's barely begun to industrialise), and has rejected calls for CO2 emissions targets.
"Is it useful to have any more conferences on global warming?" he asks in a paper published on Tuesday, adding that "such conferences are useless, although they are better than a world war".
The most interesting part of the Paper is where Akasofu questions whether there is enough scientific proof for the Climate Change theory to start messing with the world economy:

One problem in this particular discipline of science is that scientists who base their research on computer simulations have become too arrogant, saying that they can predict the temperature in 2100, although too much is still unknown about the earth system. Ignoring natural causes of climate change and even unknown aspects of cloud physics, they rely on computer work in predicting the temperature rise in 2100. However, a computer is like a robot. It can perform only what it is instructed to do by the programs produced by the human brain. If a computer program is incorrect or inaccurate, the output will also be incorrect or inaccurate.

In science, incorrect programs or hypotheses (produced by one or a group of scientists) are criticized by other scientists and can thus be improved. That is the way science should progress. However, the IPCC regards those who criticize them as “skeptics”, or “deniers”, etc., and brought this newborn and immature science to the international stage. They stated in 2007 that scientists have done all they can and that the science is settled, and the rest of the task should be in the hands of policy makers. Such a statement is very irresponsible.
...It has been said that the only thing they agreed on at the past conferences is to decide on the time and place for the next meeting. Such conferences are useless, although they are better than a world war. It is suggested that they should postpone future meetings until the science of global warming will advance farther. It is not too late, as the proponents of global warming advocate, since there has been no predicted disaster/ catastrophe after the release of CO2 increased rapidly in 1946.

In the tropics and middle latitude, there has been no discernible disaster/catastrophe so far. This is why the world media flocks to the Arctic and reports on erroneous global warming effects. None of the phenomena and changes they reported are related even remotely to the CO2 effects. A good example is glacier calving at the terminus. Nevertheless, the world media reports that the changes are caused by the CO2 effect.

...It is very unfortunate that science is being used for political purposes. Global warming is an imaginary product used for promoting the atomic power industry.When the truth will eventually become apparent, the credibility of science will be seriously damaged, since so many scientists (not only climatologists, but also many scientists in general) blindly trusted the IPCC and accused their opponents as “skeptics” and “deniers”, etc.

.. judging by what has been described earlier, the IPCC is NOT a scientific research organization, although they skillfully mobilized 2500 “world experts in climatology”; they were used by the IPCC, some probably unwittingly. The IPCC skillfully created the impression of “consensus” among 2500 scientists. Their contribution, a large volume of publications, is conveniently used for the IPCC although the IPCC charter clearly states that they are not supposed to make recommendations to policy makers.

The IPCC has tried to emphasize that global warming began unexpectedly and abruptly after 1900 because of the enhanced release of CO2. However, global warming began as early as 1800-1850s at the same rate as the present (0.5°C/100 years), namely about 100 years earlier than the beginning of a rapid increase of CO2 release, as the earth began to recover from the Little Ice Age (1400-1800).

The recovery from a cold period is warming. Actually, the warming until 2000 and the present cooling trend can reasonably be explained as natural changes. The IPCC has ignored natural changes as at least a partial cause of global warming, in order to promote their CO2 hypothesis.

The IPCC tried to ignore the fact that the earth experienced the Little Ice Age by using the co-called “hockey stick” figure, because it is not convenient to know that the global warming began in 1800-1850, and not as they claim in the 20th century.

The recovery from the Little Ice Age (a cold period) is warming. How many of the 2500 scientists trust the hockey stick figure? Perhaps only very few. Is this then the “consensus” of 2,500 experts in climatology? Unfortunately, the IPCC and the world media have presented this hypothesis as a fact.

There is another reason for proposing the postponement of future global warming conferences. After 1998 or 2000, global temperature has stopped rising and shows a sign of cooling, in spite of the fact that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is still rapidly rising. This is an observed fact. Therefore, their temperature prediction for the year 2100 has already failed during the first 10 years.

However, IPCC scientists have not recognized it, saying that it is just a temporal change; but 10 years of consistent change is considered climate change.

The world political leaders should be able to decide to postpone future conferences until scientists could find the causes for the present halting of global warming. Temporary or not, there must be unknown forces and causes to suppress the CO2 effect or even overcome it. 

We should bring back the science of climate change to a basic science, avoiding interferences by policy makers and the world mass media. Only then can this particular science proceed in a scientifically healthy way. Only then can we discuss any global warming hypothesis as proponents and opponents (instead of as “believers” and “skeptics” or “deniers” in the religious sense), regardless of one side being in the majority or minority. In science, unlike in politics, a minority can be right.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

From Dr. Akasofu's report:

"3. Then, the question is what kind of primary manufacturing industry is the US going to choose to work on in the future? It is likely that the Obama administration has chosen the construction of atomic power plants as the next great US manufacturing effort."

Uhm, pardon my ignorance, but where ever did Dr. Akasofu get the idea that Obama has chosen to construct atomic power plants in the U.S? Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia...maybe; But, the U.S?

Obama has done everything he can to push solar and wind energy but, to my knowledge, he is actively fighting against the construction of new nuclear energy plants for the U.S.

Look, Dr. Akasofu has made some really good arguments as to WHY the U.S. should concentrate on nuclear energy. However, we are dealing with Obama here. Obama is a Marxist through-and-through and has no intention of doing what is best for America---only what is best for him and his Marxist buddies as they "change" America into a Communist country.

So, it is just ill-informed, wishful thinking on the part of Dr. Akasofu to assume that Obama will push for nuclear energy; even though that is the best course of action.

I mean, heck, who knows? Maybe Obama will bump his head one day and say, "Gee, let's build us some of them there nuclear power plants." But, for now, it is highly unlikely.

Cheers

Tarun Kumar said...

It never ceases to amaze how the simple mention of global warming in a news story sets off a tsunami of rhetoric. It generally comes from a very vocal minority that would go to its grave swearing that the sum total of climate science is a liberal plot to enrich Al Gore. Alternately, we are told the Martian ice caps are melting, proof that solar radiation and sunspot cycles — and not greenhouse gases — are the cause of planetary warmups.

Unknown said...

Gee Bhuvan What never ceases to amaze me is the way those who believe global warming is man made try to cut off the debate by attacking the debater rather than addressing the facts.