According to news reports Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is pushing Hezballah to start another war with Israel with the sole purpose of deflecting attention away from his own lack of popularity at home. As the continuing protests show, the current regime is very unpopular with the Iranian populace.
“As Israel is beating the war drums four years after its humiliating military defeat against Hizbullah, many believe that Ahmadinejad might exploit another conflict between Israel and the militant group as a way of resolving his own lack of legitimacy inside Iran,” wrote Iran's Green Voice newspaper.
...The report also alleged that Hizbullah was the beneficiary of a gift of $400 million from its Iranian handlers last month during “Iran-Lebanon Friendship Week.”
The transaction allegedly took place through the Iranian Embassy in Beirut, according to Green Voice, which reported that the cultural event provided the cover for the funds transfer.
Is the Iran regime in that much trouble that it would have one of its satellite regimes start a war to protect its own hide? Some experts say it isn't a question of "if" the present Iranian regime collapses, but
"when". One of these experts is
Menashe Amir one of the "Iran Experts" working for the Israeli Government.
....The Revolutionary Guards have taken over most of the economy, most of the political positions, and have infiltrated the judiciary system, though they continue to let Khamenei act as the face of their regime. Unlike the religious leaders of Iran, the Revolutionary Guards lack moral and religious values, with the exception of one very deep religious belief: that they are the messengers of the Mahdi, the vanguard of the messiah.
In one possible scenario, the regime will collapse from the inside. Changes to the system of subsidies can only add to Ahmadinejad’s unpopularity. In this context, international pressure and sanctions on Iran will very much influence the continuation of the struggle against the regime.
...Iran’s ultimate aim is to establish global Islamic rule, a new Islamic empire, but this time under Shi’ite leadership. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself endorses the Shi’ite belief that once the Mahdi (“the Guided One”) makes his prophesied return, the whole world will convert to Shi’ism. This belief, strange as it may sound to Western ears, lies at the heart of Iran’s foreign policy, including its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons. It is for this reason that this ambition presents a grave problem not merely for Israel, but for Arab countries, Europe, and the whole world.
...Ahmadinejad contends repeatedly that: “Nuclear development is the inalienable right of the Iranian people.” He has attempted to make Iran’s nuclear policy into a matter of national pride. So is the prevention of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons a lost cause?
At a meeting with the heads of the Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, I presented a five-point plan for eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat which, despite all the risks in its implementation, appears to me to be the sole way to eliminate the danger.
- Create a very real military threat by concentrating naval forces in the Persian Gulf and voicing threats of war at the Iranian regime.
- Widen international sanctions that will paralyze the Iranian economy in the same manner as Gaddafi’s Libya.
- Encourage ethnic minorities in Iran to launch guerrilla warfare against the regime. The Baluchis in the southeast, Turkmen in the northeast, Azaris in the northwest, Kurds in the west, and Arabic-speaking tribes in the southwest are each discriminated against and each has a history of guerrilla actions.
- Transfer funds to opposition bodies inside Iran to finance strikes, demonstrations, and other resistance activities.
- Rally three million Iranian exiles to lobby leaders in the countries where they now reside to join the international effort to effect regime change in Iran.
....the fear of voicing opposition to the regime has evaporated. Seven months after the elections, we still see widespread demonstrations. As someone who closely follows Iranian political affairs, I would say that at least 60 percent of Iranians are very much against the regime. (Others say the figure is 70-80 percent.) Two groups still support the regime: deeply religious people in poor, rural areas, and those who depend on the salary, pension, and other economic advantages the regime affords them. The big question is whether the regime will succeed in stifling the protest movement through suppression and arrests.
In effect, two possibilities now confront Iran. In the first scenario, the regime will collapse from the inside, buckling under the pressure of the protest movement, much as the Shah’s regime collapsed 31 years ago. Changes to the system of subsidies will yield much higher prices for consumer goods such as fuel, rice, and bread, which can only add to Ahmadinejad’s unpopularity. In this context, international pressure and sanctions on Iran will very much influence the continuation of the struggle against the regime.
The second possible scenario would see the Revolutionary Guards take over the leadership of Iran more and more. In fact, they have already begun to do so by shunting aside most of the prominent ayatollahs. The Revolutionary Guards have taken over most of the economy, most of the political positions, and have infiltrated the judiciary system, though they continue to let Khamenei act as the face of their regime. Unlike the religious leaders of Iran, the Revolutionary Guards lack moral and religious values, with the exception of one very deep religious belief: that they are the messengers of the Mahdi, the vanguard of the messiah. Indeed, most of the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards are uneducated. Most have never visited a Western country.
Either way, in the end this regime will collapse. Whether it will happen next year or in two years or five years or even ten years, nobody can know. But I believe that the Iranians will eventually achieve a kind of democratic regime which will be more friendly toward its neighbors. I come from Iran, I am an Iranian, and I believe that the Iranians are like most other people. They seek the good life and they want democracy. That’s what gives me hope that they will manage to create a free society.
Whether this "collapse" will happen sooner or later depends somewhat on the United States. During the course of the Obama's attempted "outreach" to Iran nothing has been accomplished nor has any additional pressure been placed on the regime. President Obama has been reluctant to give any support to the anti-regime protesters and both China and Russia have said it is not yet time for additional sanctions. The present US policy will do nothing but extend the suffering of the Iranian people, while placing the American people in great danger.
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