Dear GOP Leadership: You MAY Win A Few Latinos But The Conservatives Will Walk

Dear GOP Leadership

You don't know me. Part of the reason for that is you ignore the right-wing blogisphere. I am more than a Conservative Blogger. Jeb Bush calls me a chirper, John McCain would call me a whako bird (I shudder to thing what Chris Christie would call me given the choice).  The most accurate description of my type would be an American who believes in the republic laid by our founding patriots in documents such as the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.

Like those founding fathers you will not find much trust in government here, it's not a political thing, it's an American tradition.

Both houses of Congress are working on an immigration bill. You contend that without such a bill the GOP is doomed to loose the presidency for years to come. I would suggest that if a bill is passed that does not seal off the boarder, the GOP will be reduced to third-party status as the conservative wing of the party will become convince they have no voice in the party and find/create a political party where they can have a voice.

Your contention that the GOP will gain votes from the Latino community is not borne out by history. Take a look at the results of Hispanic voting for the past nine elections.  In 1984 Ronald Reagan received 37% of the vote. In 1986 Reagan signed an amnesty bill which like the bill before the Senate did not seal the borders. Two years later in 1988 the GOP share fell from 37-30%.

George W. Bush had great numbers (for the GOP) in his two Presidential elections. During his second term, John McCain lead the failed effort to push through a comprehensive immigration bill.  For McCain's efforts he received only 31% of the Latino vote (vs. 40% for Bush). Mitt Romney's 27% is still higher than Dole's 21% and H.W. Bush's reelection 25%.

One could make the case that the candidate's who seemed most out of touch with the common people; H.W. Bush's reelection, Bob Dole, and Romney were the ones who did the worst with the Latino vote.

Based on history it seems as if the GOP could pass an immigration bill and change the  national language to Spanish and still lose the Latino vote by a wide margin.

While there are conservatives who will object to any immigration bill which grants amnesty to the people who broke the law in coming to this country, most conservatives realize it will be very hard to round up twelve million people and kick them out of the country. 

The real red line to conservatives is sealing off the border. If an immigration bill is passed without a true protection of our borders GOP leadership will be telling conservatives to find a voice elsewhere.

There were two events today which indicated the Senate bill was heading down the wrong path. The CBO projected that the bill would only reduce illegal immigration by 25%.  During the first ten years of the bill  10,000,000 new people will enter the country by trespassing across the border.

Even though the bill his flawed in its key component of sealing off the border, Marco Rubio the supposed conservative in the Gang of Eight has voted against every amendment to designed to fix out porous border.

If a supposedly conservative Republican rejects closing the border, who is there to trust within the party?

So GOP leadership, that's where things stand, you are shoving down the throats of conservatives a flawed immigration bill that doesn't address the one item which may get us "Chirpers" to accept the rest of the bill. If you make it impossible for the "wako-birds" to find a voice in the party this issue will make us vote with our feet.  You may win a few Latino votes, but you will lose so much more.

Thank you for listening.